英國利率依家有幾「唔正常」?

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呢個係英倫銀行網誌Bank Underground 的最新短篇文章嘅題目,而以下就係經該行研究員John Lewis整理嘅英國利實質利率五年移動平均圖:

圖中有三種利率,分別係藍色嘅英行銀行利率、紅色嘅英國國債孳息同綠色嘅英國按揭利率,全部都係扣除通脹率後嘅實質利率。

咁又點喎
Lewis利用唔同嘅利率平均數,計出現時嘅英國利率同「正常」水平有大差距。

上圖藍色鑽石形就係現水平,可以見到係低過以幾個長期平均計出黎嘅「正常」水平。

出處:

Bitesize: UK real interest rates over the past three centuries

John Lewis How low are UK real interest rates by historical standards? Using the Bank’s Millennium of Macroeconomic Data, I compute real bank rate, mortgage rates, and 10-year government bond yields over time. The lines show the five year moving averages of the ex post real interest rate.


Also published on Medium.

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