《The Economist》的網誌Free Exchange評論Jackson Hole 2016的文章《The Fed has yet to take monetary reform seriously》。該文認同Larry Summers早前在網誌表示的觀點:聯儲局官員在Jackson Hole的表現令人失望。

The Fed has yet to take monetary reform seriously

Free Exchange的作者Ryan Avent指,聯儲局的官員在Jackson Hole前給人他們有意改革貨幣政策體制的希望,但結果Janet Yellen及Stanley Fischer都只是利用這個年會向市場發放短期內會加息的訊息,但對政策體制改變就欠缺討論。

In the weeks before the gathering, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) publicly discussed their worries that the current monetary framework might leave the Fed unable to deal adequately with future slowdowns. They got our hopes up: enough that we published a leader giving the Fed some suggestions for new approaches. But as Mr Summers says, the Fed let us all down.

在自然利率持續走低的環境,聯儲局利用利率政策調控通脹及就業市場的能力及空間愈來愈細,而這令早前三藩市聯儲銀行總裁John Williams建議的調高通脹目標或以用NGDP作為政策目標,都更值得討論。但聯儲局整體仍只將目前通脹長期低於2%目標的困境,歸咎於能源價格下跌及強美元等短暫情況。

…Fed members have not only decided not to set a new target. They also remain steadfast in their determination to undershoot the target they’ve already got. As they have for months, the Fed’s hawks continue to note the strength of the labour market and dismiss low inflation as the transitory product of low energy prices and a strong dollar. Yet too-low inflation looks like a chronic affliction…

…This is crazy. Having undershot its 2% target for so long, the Fed could argue that a bit of overshooting is justified so that it hits its target on average, across the whole of the business cycle. It could argue that overshooting is justified as a way to nudge inflation expectations back up. It could argue that, having failed to reach its target for more than four years now, caution demands it hold off on rate increases until inflation is unmistakably on track to reach 2%. But no! Absurdly, the Fed is preparing to raise rates while inflation is both below target and decelerating…

The End

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