教你用Freakonomics來對付張融

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今個星期唔講經濟環境,轉講故事。故事出自經濟學科普書Freakonomics新出第三集《Think like a Freak》。

此書教讀者點應用Freakonomics思考方式來處理日常生活,當中不少故事有趣,其中講述電郵騙案的故事就好值得同各位分享。

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Nigerian Scam的經濟邏輯

要數最出名的電郵騙案,一定要提以下一個:

“Dear Sir/Madam

I am one of the officials in the Energy management board in Nigeria. I got your info in a business directory from the Chamber of Commerce and Industries when I was searching for a RELIABLE, HONEST, AND TRUSTWORTHY person to entrust this business with.

During award of a contract to bring electrification to Urban centres, a few of my colleagues and I had inflated the amount of this contract. The OVER-INVOICED AMOUNT is being safeguarded under our custody.

However, we have decided to transfer this sum of money, $10.3 million USD, out of Nigeria. Hence, we seek for a reliable, honest foreign partner. And we agreed that THE ACCOUNT OWNER SHALL BENEFIT 30% of the total amount……”

簡單譯來就係

「你好,我係一個尼日尼亞的官員,我貪污左一筆錢,想搵個外國拍檔俾我存放住啲錢一排,如果你肯做我拍檔,我就會分番三成錢俾你……」

之後佢會要求你提供資料,再之後會叫你俾住少少錢安排匯款嘅野,之後…….

唔好玩啦,拎左你錢仲有「之後」?

係美國這種騙案名為「Nigerian Scam」,即尼日尼亞騙案,原因是騙徒好多時都係會用尼日尼亞貪官作為故事的開端。我相信作為「精明的港人」,你看到以上的內容都會諗:「呢啲騙案連警訊都唔再報啦~個騙徒做咩咁白痴~仲邊有人會中招~」

惟事實係,不但真係有人中招,而研究顯示這「白痴的騙案手法」其實好有效率。


先諗一樣野,點解騙徒要咁白痴,明知用尼日尼亞啲人一睇就知係騙局,但都影用仲用咁多年?

Microsoft Research的研究員Cormac Herley就試下代入騙徒的角度諗:

如果我Send 一萬封騙案電郵﹐有100個人上釣回覆,咁send其他9900封的成本係幾多啊?

近乎係零啊!大佬,封Email連title都唔洗改喎!反而當開始有人上釣,你就開始有成本,最基本就係要付出時間成本。咁樣嘅情況下,假設只會有一個人中計俾錢你,你會想係100個上釣的人入面有一個受騙啊,定係10 個上釣一個受騙呢?

當然係後者啦。

按Herley的分析,「上釣而不受騙」其實就係統計學上的False Positive問題,而對騙徒來說重點是要減低False Positive出現的機會,令行動更有效率。由於電郵騙案本質就是要以白痴(意指唔睇新聞同無咩常識的人)為目標,騙徒為成功「篩選」出「最白痴」的人,最簡單的方法就係用「最白痴的騙案手法」。

老實,如果你連「Nigerian Scam」都信,你就一定係好好騙的!

騙徒用咁簡單的工序就可以找到最好騙的朋友,又何樂而不為?

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