香港派埋外匯儲備好唔好?

早兩日係直播話,唔應該提倡派外匯儲備啊。因為有好多外匯儲備理論上係我地個袋同戶口入面,即係我地嘅港元價值之源。

不過,呢個講法係有唔完善嘅地方。一個被忽視嘅地方,就係因為我地依家個外匯儲備係流通貨幣嘅六倍有多

由於香港採用嘅係Currency Board制度,而呢種制度本質上只要求發行鈔票時要有足夠嘅外幣去兌換,所以貨幣經濟學者George Selgin早前就指出,理論上金管局絕對可以用呢啲「多餘」嘅外匯存備,「印」出新嘅港幣給予香港政府使用。

呢個亦會正式係所謂港版嘅「直升機派錢」。

Only the appearance is deceiving, because the workings I just described are those of an orthodox currency board; and Hong Kong’s “currency board of sorts” is far from orthodox. That’s mainly because, instead of holding U.S. dollar assets just equal to an equivalent value in outstanding HKD banknotes, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s “Exchange Fund,” which manages its currency issues and manages its asset portfolio, has for some time now held U.S. dollar reserves far in excess of the value of Hong Kong’s currency stock. At latest count, they amounted to US$440.6 billion dollars, or about seven times the value of outstanding HKD banknotes! It follows that, if the government let it, the HKMA could easily finance this year’s planned handout by just creating a like value of banknotes (or, more accurately, “certificates of indebtedness” that the HKMA awards to Hong Kong’s currency-issuing banks in order to allow them to issue notes) without violating the 100 percent reserve requirement.

Instead, the HKMA will almost certainly sell some foreign assets on behalf of the Hong Kong government, crediting it’s HKD accounts at the HKMA or elsewhere in the banking system. Adult HK citizens can then apply to the government for payment of the $10,000 to which each is entitled, receiving it mainly in the shape of a credit to their individual bank accounts. In this way, the government’s handout will have no effect whatsoever on the supply of Hong Kong dollars.

當然,要思考係現代金融制度下,外儲係咪只要支持實體貨幣就足夠呢?

呢點我並無足夠嘅學術研究作補充。但值得留意,目前香港嘅銀根不單包括流通貨幣,亦包括反映銀行體系流動性嘅 Aggregate Balance,同金管局發行嘅Exchange Fund Bills,呢啲都係金管局要確保銀行可以兌回美元嘅資產。

目前香港嘅銀根接近1.7萬億港元(約2162億美元),而外儲約為4457億美元,為銀根兩倍左右,比率相對並唔高,但都上萬億港元。

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