英國12月零售量

按月-3.2% (11月: 1.4%); 按年-2.4% (0.2%)


英國人11月提前聖誕消費致急跌

12月嘅跌幅,主要成原係「非食品」嘅銷售量下跌拖累。

  • ONS指出,唔少英國人將去百貨公司購物、買衫買玩具送禮呢批聖誕消費行為,推前左係十一月(例如Black Friday)時進行
  • 因此,11月見到高達1.4%嘅增幅,但去到十二月就失去消費耐力。

Retailers reported that part of the fall over the month to December was because of consumers purchasing gifts earlier than usual, in November.

This is supported by our Public opinion and social trends bulletin for the period 29 November to 10 December which reported that 46% of adults had, or were planning to spend less, on Christmas food or presents with 39% buying Christmas food or presents earlier, to spread the cost.


按月跌幅屬「衰退級」

零售量按月3.2%嘅跌幅,其實都頗為誇張。

  • 呢個數據1996年開始至今,只有五次跌多過3.2%嘅紀錄(下圖紅棒)。
  • 其中四次出現係疫情期間:
    >> 2020-03-01: -5.3%
    >> 2020-04-01: -17.9%
    >> 2020-11-01: -4.7%
    >> 2021-01-01: -8.2%
  • 除此之外,只有係2008年8月錄得更大嘅跌幅(當月跌3.6%),亦即係金融海嘯時期。

  • 路透報道引述ONS(英國統計局)嘅數字,指零售數字相信會為第四季GDP帶黎0.04個百分點嘅拖累。

分析員:可能之後會上調

有個別分析員都指,今次嘅跌幅真係差得太離譜,要知道市場嘅預期都只係跌0.5%。

  • 例如ING Think嘅James Smith直言對數字有啲疑問。佢覺得雖然12月英國天氣較濕,可以打擊消費意欲。但亦有可能係提前11月買禮物呢個趨勢愈黎愈強,嚴重影響左季度調整嘅功用,倍大左12月嘅跌幅。

The UK retail sector seems to have had a torrid end to 2023. Retail sales fell by 3.2% on the month, which represents a huge fall – even by the volatile standards of this data. So huge, in fact, that we’re a little bit sceptical.

Wet weather in December will inevitably attract some of the blame, while it does appear that the trend of pulling spending forward to November from December to benefit from Black Friday is continuing. It’s hard to say, but this may be playing havoc with some of the seasonal adjustment processes.

  • FT報道都引述左EY ITEM Club嘅經濟顧問Martin Beck指,12月嘅數字好大機會之後會上調。

高通漲令消費量、金額分叉愈走愈遠

睇返個闊少少嘅晝面,睇返近幾年零售量同金額嘅指數走勢,見到嘅係分叉相當明顯。

  • 零售量(Volume),係ONS以零售金額(Value)扣減返個價格變幅計出黎嘅;
  • 當金額指數高過量嘅幅度愈來愈大,個差距就反映價格不停上升。換言之,某程度反映緊過去幾年嘅生活成本急升嘅嚴重性
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