今日係美國五月份就業報告嘅公佈日,官方公佈時間係美國早上8:30。係今早7:21,Trump突然發左以下呢一條Tweet:

Donald J. Trump on Twitter

Looking forward to seeing the employment numbers at 8:30 this morning.

其實Trump絕少係經濟數據公佈前,特意提醒大眾留意數據,所以係有少少令人疑問發生咩事。

到8:30 BLS正式公佈數據,非農就業增長遠較預期強勁,而失業率更跌至3.8%這個近18年低位,大家即時明白Trump的提示用意何在。而佢呢個舉動令到唔少經濟學者批評,點解有問題?

不妨睇下學者Justin Wolfers嘅解釋。

Justin Wolfers on Twitter

Lemme bore you by telling you why this tweet was an effing outrage. The jobs numbers are released at 8:30am. The President is traditionally told the numbers the night before, but told to play them close to his chest. But at 7:21am he’s telling us all to tune in. Wonder why.

Justin Wolfers on Twitter

Dozens of federal employees who go to enormous lengths to make sure that no-one (beyond the White House) can get a jump on the numbers and front-run the market. But the President just big-footed them. And really, who’s surprised that the numbers were stronger than expected?

Justin Wolfers on Twitter

Here’s the problem: Who wants to buy U.S. stocks, if you think there’s a chance that you might be buying from someone who’s selling based on Trump having said something to them on the phone last night? Even if this effect is small, what’s the upside from Trump’s tweet?

Justin Wolfers on Twitter

And you can’t put the genie back in the bottle: Next jobs day, if at 7:21am Trump tweets about Roseanne or some other dumb thing that’s not the jobs day, markets will infer he doesn’t want to talk about the jobs report. Watch: Stocks will fall as a result.

Justin Wolfers on Twitter

If *any* other federal employee had tweeted in a way that gave the *appearance* of hinting at confidential information, they would be fired on the spot. Plus there would be an investigation checking their emails and phone logs to make sure they hadn’t leaked to others, too.

Justin Wolfers on Twitter

Honestly, I get that on the scale of norms violations, it’s small. And if he’s an honest bloke, he didn’t tip off any of his mates. But what’s the upside? Why not follow the norms of your office? Why mess with financial markets? Or undermine the integrity of our stats?

簡單總結,就係總統一向可以係就業報告公佈前一晚,經Council of Economic Advisors(CEA)預前取得數據,因此Trump絕對係一早知道是次公佈嘅數字特別好。

現在Trump此例一開,除左對無數極力保障數據不會外流的白宮及BLS員工不公平,亦令市場未來有猜測Trump日後在經濟數據公佈日的Tweet嘅背後含意,例如當佢下次就業報告公佈日唔Tweet,係咪代表個數據唔理想?咁係咪又會提供一個股市買賣訊息?

這類疑似提早披露經濟數據的行為,換著是任何其他政府官員,都會被即時解僱,並可能其通告及聯絡紀錄都要被查,以確認他有否向其他任何人「通水」。

但Trump咁樣做,到底需唔需要承擔任何後果呢⋯⋯🤷‍♂️

以下係其他前CEA官員嘅相似評論:

Lawrence H. Summers on Twitter

If during the Clinton or Obama Administrations there had been a statement from @POTUS or anyone senior official in the morning before the Employment Report it would have been a major scandal-with all sorts of investigations following on.

Austan Goolsbee on Twitter

If the president just tipped that the numbers are good, he broke the law https://t.co/8MDJZAS22j

Jason Furman on Twitter

You should have gotten the employment numbers from the Council of Economic Advisers yesterday. And if this tweet is conveying inside information about a particularly good jobs number you should never get them in advance from the Council of Economic Advisers again. https://t.co/Qd3ig89onT

Jason Furman on Twitter

What I hope Kevin Hassett explained to President Trump today, in @WSJopinion https://t.co/mlT2Lzceww


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