另類經濟風險指標看Brexit

Brexit

宏觀經濟學者Justin Wolfers在最新一期NYT專欄章中,介紹了一個另類經濟風險指標 — Economic Policy Uncertainty Index。這個指數量度在美國報章上有關經濟字眼(如”economic”、”Economy”), 有關不確定性的字眼(”Uncertainty”、”Uncertain”等)及與政策有關的字詞(如”Federal Reserve”、”Congress”、”Deficit”等)在報道中出現的比例。 從下圖可見,這指數在Brexit後顯著急升,而按研發這指數的三名學者Scott Baker、Nick Bloom及Steven Davis指出,這指數急升後通常會出現投資減少、經濟及就業向下的情況。 An Index of Uncertainty Surges After ‘Brexit’ Via Econ記者

Justin Wolfers:美國的就業報告其實不是這麼差

上週五經濟學者Justin Wolfers為NYT撰寫,即時評論美國五月就業報告的文章。 The Jobs Report Is Not Quite as Terrible as It Looks Economic Trends Well, that stunk. The latest employment report – typically the most timely and accurate measure of the state of the business cycle – suggests that the economy is slowing. Employers added only 38,000 jobs in May, and revisions suggest that … Read more Justin Wolfers:美國的就業報告其實不是這麼差