上週五經濟學者Justin Wolfers為NYT撰寫,即時評論美國五月就業報告的文章。
The Jobs Report Is Not Quite as Terrible as It Looks
If all of these adjustments suggest that it’s hard to know what the underlying pace of jobs growth is, then you are correct. These numbers are imprecise estimates, and they come with a margin of error of plus or minus 100,000.
文中指出,其實美國已步入Baby Boomer退休的周期,所以理論上新增職位的增長速度不再需要如以往般快,就可以追上人口增長。合理的每月新增職位增速只消維持在7萬至9萬個職位,就應可維持失業率穩定。
他指出,目前失業率已經跌至2007年11月的低位,職位增長減慢為正常。但當然,目前時薪增速仍只有約2.5%,應反映美國的勞動市場仍未完全轉緊,但每月10萬個職位增長應為合理增幅。
From The Jobs Report Is Not Quite as Terrible as It Looks via Econ記者