St. Louis聯儲銀行副總裁David Andolfatto最新一篇網誌討論呢個比較少人注意嘅學術角度 — 實質利率計嘅孳息曲綫反轉係咪都係衰退先兆？個理論上解釋係點講架呢？

Andolfatto指實質利率某程度係反映消費或經濟實質增長率，一年期嘅實質利率正數就大致顯示預期經濟增長都係正數，十年期實質利率就大約反映預期未來十年嘅平均增長。如果用呢個角度睇，實質利率嘅孳息曲綫右向上（例如十年實質利率減一年實質利率係正數），就顯示預期經濟增長會加速；換言之，反轉左嘅實質利率孳息曲綫就係預視經濟增長減速。

#### What is the yield curve forecasting?

It’s well-known that in the United States, recessions are often preceded by an inversion of the yield curve. Is there any economic rationale for why this should be the case? Most yield curve analysis makes reference to nominal interest rates. Economic theory, however, stresses the relevance of real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates.