幾年前Larry Summers重提Secular Stagnation(恆滯)呢個概念,指美國嘅實質利率持續下降同埋平均增長速度放緩,反映經濟已陷入恆滯。自此恆滯成為經濟學界一個熱門討論題目,除左討論所謂「恆滯」係咪存在,亦有唔少研究係探討恆滯嘅成因。

係Larry Summers嘅論述中,人口老化係恆滯其中一個成因;直接可見嘅關連,係人口老化令參與勞動市場嘅人減少,因而拖累經濟增長並引致恆滯。

不過一個典型嘅反駁論述,就係當勞動人口減少,人力資源嘅邊際成本上升,咁就會令企業有更大嘅動力去投資研發,希望用機械取替工人並提升返個整體生產力。

去年Daron Acemoglu 同 Pascual Restrepo 就係American Economic Review 刊出題為《Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation》嘅研究,提出實證數據指人口老化與經濟增長有正向嘅關係,並相信機械取替工人嘅並提高生產力,係背後原因。

American Economic Association

Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation by Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo. Published in volume 107, issue 5, pages 174-79 of American Economic Review, May 2017, Abstract: Several recent theories emphasize the negative effects of an aging population on…

早前Summers就同Gauti Eggertsson、 Manuel Lancastre兩位合著一篇新嘅工作論文回應Acemoglu同Restrepo。

係呢篇題為《Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation》嘅研究入面,三位學者就提出人口老化同經濟增長嘅潛在關連機制,試以解釋Acemoglu嘅數據點解無推翻恆滯嘅可能性。

Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation

NBER Working Paper No. 24902 Issued in August 2018 NBER Program(s):Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Monetary Economics This paper re-examines the relationship between population aging and economic growth. We confirm previous research such as Cutler, Poterba, Sheiner, and Summers (1990) and Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) that show positive correlation between measures of population aging and per-capita output growth.

研究提出人口老化可能令資本積聚更多,例如壽命預期長左會令人儲蓄更多;當經濟體入面嘅資本大幅推高,將可以推高經濟增長。

Summers等提出嘅機制,同樣有解釋人口老化同經濟增長嘅正比關係,唔同嘅係呢個論述入面實質利率會有相當重要嘅角色 – 資本累積多左應該推低實質利率,從而刺激投資上升並帶動經濟增長。

咁又點解會出現恆滯?

一個可能就係實質利率呢個調節機制失效……


呢篇文餘下內容,只有係贊助訂戶先睇到。

如果你想睇就快啲登記啦。


➡ 贊助一個月
➡ 訂戶登入 ⬅