如何對抗Secular Stagnation – Michael Spence

諾貝爾經濟學獎得主Michael Spence在Project Syndicate撰文《How to Fight Secular Stagnation》，討論如何抗衡Secular Stagnation這問題。

Spence的看法是Secular Stagnation有兩種，一種是正常的看法，由科技增長放緩、經濟不確定性及債務負擔增加引致經濟長綫增速減慢，而且難以解決。

To be sure, there is a strong case to be made that many of the growth-destroying headwinds that we currently face would be difficult, if not impossible, to counter in the near term without endangering future growth and stability. The result of these persistent conditions can be called “secular stagnation one” (SS1).

但他認為亦有另一類Secular Stagnation，是因為經濟政策的失效而成，他建議透過解決貧富懸殊、加息、資本管制及財政刺激政策等來解決。

…there is more to the story, revealed by another, more precise, question: is there a set of policy responses that could, over time, increase the level and quality of growth? Here, the answer also seems to be yes, suggesting that we are also facing another type of secular stagnation – call it “secular stagnation two” (SS2) – that is dictated by our unwillingness or inability to implement the right policy mix…