從內地經濟第一滴血說起

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近日有關內地經濟快將出現所謂的「Lehman Moment」,即是大陸的影子銀行的負製造出來的信貸波沬快將因為經濟增速放慢而爆,而近日人民幣的持續下跌便是早期「病徵」之一,這個看法預視的是,人仔及經濟在不久將來,將會出現爆跌!

而昨日就出現了強國經濟危機的「重要證據」,就是所謂的「第一滴血」可能已出現!浙江寧波一間地產發展商,因為去年樓價回落三分之一,加上公司老闆及其兒子去年因為「非法集資」而被捕,導致資金周轉不靈,令這家公司大有機會就向人民銀行及建行在內銀行對其借出的35億元人民幣貸款違約!由於金額不細,加上在國企內銀汲及在事件當中,令人猜想這大有機會成為「第一滴血」!

以下為有線的新聞報道片段:

Financial Times的報道是這樣的:(這裏可看全文

“Although Xingrun’s problems appear to stem mostly from mismanagement and alleged illegal activity, the company’s demise could be a warning sign of problems to come in China’s overheated property sector.

Over-investment in the sector is China’s top risk this year and next, say analysts at Nomura Securities.“The risk is particularly high in third- and fourth-tier cities, which account for 67 per cent of housing under construction in China in 2013,” said Zhiwei Zhang, an economist at Nomura.

‘This risk does not seem fully recognised in the market partly because data are not readily available for these cities, and some investors may be misled by the boom in first-tier cities.'”

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其實有關人民幣的近期的持續下跌的情況,個人較喜歡看外國學者或專家的看法,而有關貨幣制度的問題,識睇一定係Prof. Eichengreen!Eichengreen是我認為當今研究International Monetary System最頂尖的學者之一,他近年的研究是小弟必看之選,最近他就在Project Syndicate上撰文表達對人民幣近期的危機之看法,值得一看。

Eichengreen認為,人民幣的下跌仍是在人行的控制之內:

“The reality is that China’s tightly controlled currency falls only when the People’s Bank of China wants it to fall. The PBOC, not the Fed, calls the tune to which the renminbi dances.

So why has it been singing the depreciation song?

One possibility is that a weaker renminbi is, paradoxically, part of the Chinese government’s strategy for encouraging its wider international use. China is committed to broadening the renminbi’s role for foreign trade and investment-related purposes. Ultimately, it would like to see the renminbi achieve an international status comparable to that of the dollar.”

按其解說,人民幣要成功「國際化」就一定先要終止市場認為人民幣會「長升長有」的期望,否則當央行「一放手」,就會馬上有極大量的資金湧入,急速推高人民幣滙價,這會為內地金融業帶來嚴重風險,甚至帶來高通脹。除此之外,降人仔滙率有利中國出口:

” A second, less positive interpretation is that the PBOC is weakening the renminbi in order to boost Chinese exports. Reacting against excesses in the country’s property markets and shadow banking system, the PBOC has moved, not unreasonably, to limit the availability of cheap credit. But this may have caused domestic demand growth to slow more rapidly than expected. And boosting exports is, of course, China’s customary response to weaker domestic demand.”

簡單來說就是中央預見內地經濟將會硬着陸,所以重新用出口推動經濟增長,以保經濟。某程度上,香港的普遍看法,較為接近後者,只是本港及內地的看法更為悲觀。

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說到外國人對內地經濟的看法較樂觀些,亦可見Financial Times的看法。其對內地是否步入「Lehman Moment」有三個觀察:(這裏可看全文

“First, Chinese corporate debt has soared over the past five years. The debt of non-financial companies rose from about 85 per cent of gross domestic product in 2008 to closer to 120 per cent today. This is a very steep rise in a short time – something that has been a precursor to financial crises in other countries – and it puts Chinese companies at the high end of indebtedness among emerging markets.

Second, China’s government is not blind to the dangers. The immediate trigger for the current corporate troubles was policy action…….The hope is that this will force investors to assess risks more carefully before throwing their money at undeserving companies………….

Third, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic that China’s deleveraging will result in a slowdown, not a collapse. For better and for worse, the Chinese government still controls the economy’s big levers. Interest rates, the exchange rate and bank lending remain in Beijing’s hands to a significant degree – certainly far more than in any developed economy.”

在外國媒體的看法,普遍都是今次內地經濟會受考驗,違約事件會陸續出現,經濟會放慢,金融系統會受挑戰,不過就算有這些一切,他們都相信強國經濟可以順利過渡這一串危機。原因只有一個,中央對經濟的操控能力仍強!

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個人認為,外國對內地經濟觀察是值得留意的,而且我亦相信那是較客觀及理性的分析,問題只是這些分析預測準確與否。我認同內地對經濟的操控能力強,亦同意強國的經濟不會陷入絕望的衰退,至少在統計數字上不會。我認為內地違約潮會出現,這是外媒都同意的情況,連着的問題是中央救不救。外國的看法是會救,但只救一部份人,其餘的當是對全國商人的教訓,教訓他們做生意要有良好的風險管理。 但是,我想任何一個中國人都會明白,救誰這決定很可能取決於…….某「你懂的」因素。假如這次經濟危機真是可控的,那為甚麼要引發這次危機?利之所在?

可能這一方面是「行刑式教訓」,令部份發展得太快但又不太受控的商人接受「教訓」,另一方面則重新鞏固固有利益者的得益。

當然我只是胡亂估計,無「直接證據」。但從以上的角度看,中國未來一兩年經濟增長數字只會輕微減慢,但收入分配將會更為不平衡,經濟動力會再減。金融系統會開放,但能「市場化」?

哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈~

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