之前討論過不同年期孳息曲綫反轉嘅衰退預測能力,今次就引述St. Louis Fed網誌講講銀行係孳息曲綫反轉同衰退之間,一個潛在嘅角色。

Can an Inverted Yield Curve Cause a Recession? | St. Louis Fed

An inverted yield curve-or a situation in which market yields on shorter-term U.S. Treasury securities exceed those on longer-term securities-has been a remarkably consistent predictor of economic recessions. However, simply because inversions forecast recessions does not necessarily mean that inversions cause recessions. Why might a yield curve inversion cause economic activity to slow?

先問一問,孳息曲綫反轉對銀行營運有無影響呢?

銀行最基本嘅功能係收取存款,再以之作放貸收息。一般而言存款主要以活期存款(即係存戶幾時都可以提款)為主,但放貸時通常都係有頗長嘅還款期(例如按揭,一般都十幾二十年),所以我地都會講銀行係「借短貸長」嘅生意。

同孳息曲綫有咩關係?


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點解孳息曲綫反轉會衰退? 銀行業係成因之一| Medium版

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