路透引述多個消息人士指，沙特阿拉伯政府已經取消將國有油企上市嘅計劃；雖然沙特能源部長 Khalid Al Falih發表聲明，指報道並唔正確，強調沙特政府仍堅持會將Aramco上市，但就講左句「幾時上市由我地話事，等緊市況最合適嘅時候。」
市場嘅睇法係呢句話意味著，沙特會無限期推遲上市計劃。點解上市都搞到咁煩，搞左幾年都搞唔成，依家仲要無限期推遲延呢？
其實唔少原因我之前都寫過，整理返俾大家睇：
1）做唔到2萬億美元估值
係當日公佈上市大計時，沙特皇諸（當時只係副皇諸）指Aramco上市估值高達2萬億美元，單係5%上市都可以為主權基金（PIF）帶黎1000億美元嘅資金。
但市傳Aramco嘅顧問一直苦惱2萬億嘅市值好難成真，一個原因係早年油價過低，但更重要係Aramco一直係沙特皇室嘅私人提款機，直接支持國家不少支出。呢筆數目係披露處理已經好難交代。而就算沙特政皇室點樣拍心口保證，市場都難以相信Aramco未來嘅收入唔會再成國家「包底基金」，呢個風險因素令Aramco估值大打折扣。
For Aramco Insiders, Prince’s $2 Trillion IPO Valuation Doesn’t Add Up
Officials working on taking the state-owned oil company public have struggled to come up with a scenario under which Saudi Aramco is worth more than $1.5 trillion, according to people familiar with the matter.
2）油價回升
幾年前油價急跌，布蘭特期油一度跌穿30美元，近兩年係沙特積極推動嘅OPEC+減產協議支持下，油價已經回穩至60至70美元。
減產協議除左可以舒緩該國嘅財政壓力之外，亦可以支持Aramco嘅估值；例如要達到沙特一直聲稱的2萬億美元，油價就要至少維持70美元。
有趣嘅係現時油價回穩，政府收入又連隨回升，令反而令要Aramco上市嘅迫切性下降。
For timing of Aramco IPO, watch forward oil price curve
LONDON (Reuters) – It’s the burning question in the oil industry: when will Saudi Arabia pull the trigger on the Aramco stock market listing? Many industry experts are focusing on the current level of oil prices.
3）中資入股
要知道係Aramco估值回升嘅同時，亦有傳中資有意直接入股Aramco亦令融資渠道多左，上市亦未必係最好嘅選擇。中國直接向沙特洽購Aramco股份，可以幫後者解決一啲困難；例如中國直接入股，估值上嘅工夫可能會以隨意一點，因為中國唔只想投資係Aramco未來嘅盈利分成，亦係投資係同沙特嘅戰略關係，因此溢價不妨給多一點，相信呢點令沙特對上市融資更為卻步。
Saudi Aramco Could Still Sell a Stake-to China
A juicy IPO of the world’s biggest oil company looks increasingly unlikely soon. That doesn’t mean there won’t be another chance for Aramco to sell a piece of itself.
4)借錢好過
另外，最新消息係沙特主權基金（PIF）打算向多間國際銀行貸款120億美元。
原先Aramco上市嘅用途，就係為PIF籌集資金作投資之用，希望用呢筆錢分散沙特嘅投資收入，唔好再依靠石油相關收入。依家眼見其他融資方法都容易，亦令Aramco嘅吸引力下降。
Riyadh to seek $11bn in bank loans after Saudi Aramco IPO stalls
Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund is primed to choose international banks to lend it $11bn, filling the hole left by the delayed listing of state energy group Saudi Aramco and providing financing for crown prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ambitious economic reforms. The loans will be the first made to the Public Investment Fund, the vehicle used to drive the young prince’s vision for an economy less dependent on oil, which has placed bold bets on electric car maker Tesla, ride-hailing app Uber and space travel company Virgin Galactic.
