阿特蘭大聯儲銀行GDPNow預測 — 美國首季增長0.9%

美國聯儲局體系內有兩個較受注目的Nowcasting數據,一為聖路易斯聯儲銀行的 Economic News Index,另一個則為阿特蘭大聯儲銀行GDPNow

阿特蘭大聯儲銀行GDPNow在昨日聯儲局公佈議息結果前,就公佈了最新的GDPNow數據,預計美國今年第一季的經濟增長只會有0.9%:

這個預測數字較3月8日公佈時的1.2%增長預測更低,下調增長預測的原因,是上週公佈的就業數據及昨日公佈的消費數據拖累。

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 15, down from 1.2 percent on March 8. The GDP growth forecast declined 0.3 percentage points on Friday when the February estimate of the model’s latent dynamic factor used to forecast yet-to-be released GDP source data declined after the employment situation release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth inched down from 1.6 percent to 1.5 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Consumer Price Index release from the BLS.

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